Welcome to the Tesla Rumors Blog. Here you will find my observations, and thoughts about Tesla, their cars, reactions to news, and ideas. Enjoy.
Welcome to the Tesla Rumors Blog. Here you will find my observations, and thoughts about Tesla, their cars, reactions to news, and ideas. Enjoy.
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My Tesla Model S is almost free.
My Lexus RX300 doesn’t get great mileage, it’s a pretty average 16 mpg according to my car’s mileage calculator. But I don’t know if that’s accurate. According to a study by Edmunds, they find that cars overestimate mileage commonly. I know that I’m filling up my tank about every 5 to 6 days, at about $60 per tank fill. That’s $300 per month, and $3600 per year!
If I were to calculate this for 10 years, that would be $36,000 in gasoline! However, gas won’t always be around $4.00 per gallon. In fact, from what I read, analysts are predicting that gas will be double in price from what it is now by 2020. Ouch! That means that by 2020, I’ll be paying $8.00 per gallon (it may be even more by 2023 - 10 years from the time I get my Tesla Model S in 2013).
So I did the math. If I pay the median of the price between $4.00 and $8.00, that is $6.00, then I’m really paying 1.5 times more than what I’m paying now. 1.5 times $36,000 is $54,000. Wait, doesn’t the Tesla Model S cost $57,400 plus an estimated $1950 destination fee? Don’t I get a Federal rebate of $7500 that reduces it to $49,900? Won’t I have to pay sales tax on it at 9.75% for the amount of $5,597? Per the DMV in California’s calculator, I’ll be paying $454 in registration fees. My car too, will be worth something 10 years from now when I sell it. So this number will actually be lower. Let’s lowball it and guess that its worth only 10% of what it cost me, so that’s $5740.
From my calculations, it costs $3.00 to recharge a Tesla 160 mile battery. If I’m getting 16 miles per gallon at $4.00 per gallon and spending $3600/year in gasoline, then I’m traveling about 10,800 miles per year. That works out to $203 in electricity per year in the Tesla. In speculating that electricity costs too will double in 10 years, then the average of that would be 1.5 x $203 x 10 years = $3045 in fuel (electricity).
So let’s add that up:
Cost of the Tesla S + Destination Fee + Sales tax - Federal Credit + Tesla S Resale value - Fuel costs (electricity)
$57,400 + $1950 + $5597 +$454 - $7500 - $5740 + 3045 = $55,206
But if you compare the estimated/forecasted $54,000 that I would spend in 10 years for gas, compared to $55,206 that the Tesla S and all expenses will cost, there’s only a difference of $1206, making the Tesla Model S almost free!
This, however, doesn’t include what I may pay for insurance on a Tesla Model S vs a less expensive car, nor what I save in maintenance costs since an electric engine doesn’t have the same maintenance requirements as a gasoline-powered engine. But wow, what a saving! No wonder the Tesla Model S is sold out for 2012 and is already selling cars for delivery in 2013!
Friday, November 11, 2011
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